Geopolitics
Open
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls inclu
100% Yes
0% No
11426Credits Wagered
8Bets
11426On Yes
0On No
Probability Timeline
Place a Bet
Betting as anon-375f25 (change) · balance: 100000 play credits
If you're right, you split the losing side's pool with everyone else who bet your side, proportional to your stake. If you're wrong, your stake goes to them.
Recent Bets
| When (UTC) | Bettor | Side | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01T20:20:02.693Z | anon-8600c2 | yes | 1762 |
| 2026-09-01T17:20:01.508Z | anon-8600c2 | yes | 1243 |
| 2026-09-01T15:20:01.596Z | anon-8600c2 | yes | 1716 |
| 2026-08-23T03:00:01.757Z | anon-8600c2 | yes | 1109 |
| 2026-08-23T01:40:01.681Z | anon-8600c2 | yes | 1756 |
| 2026-08-14T08:20:01.412Z | anon-8600c2 | yes | 1615 |
| 2026-08-14T06:20:01.939Z | anon-8600c2 | yes | 547 |
| 2026-08-14T04:20:02.170Z | anon-8600c2 | yes | 1678 |